A Blind Squirrel and His Nuts
We’ve all heard the saying:
“Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.”
It’s a funny line, until you realize it describes how far too many people approach sales.
As a business consultant, I’ve spoken to hundreds of companies and sales teams across industries. And one moment from a conference of insurance agents a few years ago sticks with me to this day. I opened my keynote with three simple questions:
By a show of hands, how many of you hit your sales goals last year?
How many of you have a sales forecast for this year?
And how many of you know exactly what you need to do every single day to hit those goals?
Not one hand went up.
I was standing in a room full of blind squirrels, hoping for success, but having no process or plan to achieve it.
Sales Is a Numbers Game, But Only If You Know Your Numbers
There’s a lot of truth in the old saying that sales is a numbers game. And I couldn’t agree more.
Every business, whether you're selling insurance, software, real estate, or widgets, has a sales process. And that process is repeatable, measurable, and optimizable only when you know the math behind it.
Let’s break it down.
At its core, the sales process looks like this:
You need a defined number of leads or prospects in your pipeline
You must make a specific number of touches (calls, emails, DMs, texts)
From those touches, a percentage will respond or engage
Of those, a portion will qualify as real opportunities
And finally, a fraction of those opportunities will convert into closed deals
Each step has a conversion rate. Each rep has unique strengths and weaknesses. And every product, market, and season affects the math.
But here’s the bottom line:
If you don’t know your personal sales formula, you’re gambling, not selling.
You Can’t Forecast from Fantasy
One of the biggest mistakes I see business owners and sales leaders make is building forecasts based on hope instead of reality. I call it “Smokin’ Hopeium.”
Here’s an example:
A call center sets a goal for each rep to close 20 sales a week. Sounds great on paper, right?
But when we broke down the call volume required, the average call length, and the conversion rates... it became clear that each rep would need to work 11-hour days without breaks just to maybe hit the goal.
The problem wasn’t the reps, it was the math.
The forecast wasn’t tied to any grounded sales activity. It was fantasy dressed up as strategy. And it set every rep up to fail.
The Most Dangerous Lie in Sales
Here it is:
“If I just keep doing what I’m doing, something will eventually close.”
Maybe. But maybe you’re a blind squirrel hoping for a nut.
Sales success doesn’t come from hoping. It comes from clarity.
You need to know:
How many calls/emails you need to make today
How many of those will turn into real conversations
How many of those will create qualified opportunities
And how many of those you’ll actually close
Only then can you predict, and hit, your revenue targets, GUARANTEED.
The Cure for Blind Squirrel Syndrome
If you want to stop wandering the forest hoping for a sale, ask yourself this:
Do I know what specific actions I need to take today to move closer to my goal?
Do I know how many touches, meetings, or demos I need to complete this week?
Is my sales forecast tied to real activity, or just an ambitious number on a spreadsheet?
If you can't answer those questions clearly and confidently, you’re guessing. And guessing is not a growth strategy.
Final Thought: Be the Squirrel with a Map
Sales doesn't have to be chaotic. It doesn't have to be based on luck, timing, or random momentum.
When you understand your numbers and create a daily operating rhythm, everything changes. Confidence increases. Results improve. Forecasts become accurate. And you finally stop chasing success and start creating it.
So go ahead, check your goals. And more importantly, check your daily plan to get there.
Because if you don’t know what to do today to hit your number...
you might just be another blind squirrel hoping for a nut.
Need help building a sales process based on real math, not magical thinking? I work with founders, executives, and sales teams to turn chaos into clarity, and missed quotas into momentum. Let’s talk.
Let me know if you'd like this version formatted for your CMS or turned into a lead magnet for your site (e.g. “Download Your Daily Sales Math Worksheet”). I can also design an accompanying visual or infographic if you'd like!
